The Influence Of Macroeconomic Variables, The EIDO Index And The Nikkei 225 Index On The Rate Of Return With The Composite Stock Price Index As An Intervening Variable In The Mutual Fund In Bapepam

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The Influence of Macroeconomic Variables, EIDO Index, and Nikkei 225 Index on the Returns of Stock Mutual Funds in Bapepam

Introduction

In the current era of the global economy, understanding the influence of macroeconomic variables on the capital market is crucial for investors who invest in shares mutual funds. The Indonesian capital market, represented by the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI), is a significant indicator of the country's economic performance. This study aims to identify and analyze how macroeconomic variables, such as inflation, exchange rates, and bank interest rates, as well as stock market indexes like EIDO and Nikkei 225, affect the rate of return of stock funds with the Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI) as an intervening variable.

Research Methodology

This study used data from January 2011 to December 2015 and applied saturated sampling techniques with a total of 45 samples. To analyze data, multiple linear regression analysis methods were used, along with path analysis with the help of EViews software 8. The results of the analysis show that simultaneously, macroeconomic variables - covering inflation, exchange rates, BI interest rates, and EIDO and Nikkei 225 indexes - have significant influences against the JCI, with a significance value of 0.000002 smaller than 0.05.

Research Results

The results of the study also revealed that:

  • Inflation has a positive effect, but is not significant on the JCI. This suggests that although inflation can affect people's purchasing power, its effect on the stock market is not always directly visible.
  • Exchange Rate also shows an insignificant positive effect on the JCI. This indicates that despite fluctuating, the effect of the exchange rate on the JCI may be reduced by various other factors, such as market sentiments and government policies.
  • BI Interest Rate has a negative and significant effect on JCI. This indicates that an increase in interest rates can reduce investment attractiveness in the stock market, considering that investors tend to look for safer alternative investments such as deposits or bonds.
  • Index EIDO and Nikkei 225 showed positive and significant effects on the JCI. This suggests that the Indonesian stock market is inseparable from the dynamics of the global economy, where the performance of the foreign stock market can have an impact on the perception of risk and yields expected by domestic investors.

In addition, the Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI) is proven to have a positive influence on the rate of return of shares mutual funds. That is, if the CSPI increases, it is expected that the rate of return from the mutual fund will also increase.

Analysis and Explanation

The analysis conducted in this study provides in-depth insights about the factors that influence the stock market in Indonesia. The influence of positive but not significant inflation can be understood as the effect of inflation on the stock market is not always directly visible. Likewise with the exchange rate, which despite fluctuating, its effect on the JCI may be reduced by various other factors, such as market sentiments and government policies.

The significant influence of the EIDO and Nikkei 225 index indicates that the Indonesian stock market is inseparable from the dynamics of the global economy, where the performance of the foreign stock market can have an impact on the perception of risk and yields expected by domestic investors.

Conclusion

Overall, this research makes an important contribution to investors' understanding of how macroeconomic variables and international stock indexes can affect the stock market in Indonesia. For mutual fund investors, the results of this study confirm the importance of monitoring the JCI as an indicator of investment performance and considering macroeconomic factors in investment decision making. Along with the changing global economic dynamics, a deep understanding of this relationship will be the key to gaining maximum profits in the stock market.

Recommendations

Based on the findings of this study, the following recommendations are made:

  • Investors should consider macroeconomic factors, such as inflation, exchange rates, and interest rates, when making investment decisions.
  • Mutual fund investors should monitor the JCI as an indicator of investment performance.
  • The Indonesian government should consider the impact of macroeconomic variables on the stock market when making economic policies.
  • Further research should be conducted to explore the relationship between macroeconomic variables and the stock market in Indonesia.

Limitations

This study has several limitations, including:

  • The study only used data from January 2011 to December 2015, which may not be representative of the current economic situation.
  • The study only analyzed the influence of macroeconomic variables on the JCI, and did not consider other factors that may affect the stock market.
  • The study only used multiple linear regression analysis, and did not consider other statistical methods that may provide more accurate results.

Future Research Directions

Based on the findings of this study, the following future research directions are suggested:

  • Conducting a study on the impact of macroeconomic variables on the stock market in other countries.
  • Exploring the relationship between macroeconomic variables and the stock market in Indonesia using other statistical methods.
  • Conducting a study on the impact of the EIDO and Nikkei 225 index on the stock market in Indonesia.

References

  • [List of references cited in the study]

Appendix

  • [Appendix containing additional information, such as tables and figures, that support the findings of the study]
    Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) about the Influence of Macroeconomic Variables, EIDO Index, and Nikkei 225 Index on the Returns of Stock Mutual Funds in Bapepam

Q: What is the main objective of this study? A: The main objective of this study is to identify and analyze how macroeconomic variables, such as inflation, exchange rates, and bank interest rates, as well as stock market indexes like EIDO and Nikkei 225, affect the rate of return of stock funds with the Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI) as an intervening variable.

Q: What are the macroeconomic variables considered in this study? A: The macroeconomic variables considered in this study are inflation, exchange rates, and bank interest rates.

Q: What is the significance of the EIDO and Nikkei 225 index in this study? A: The EIDO and Nikkei 225 index are significant in this study because they represent the performance of the foreign stock market, which can have an impact on the perception of risk and yields expected by domestic investors.

Q: What is the relationship between the Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI) and the rate of return of shares mutual funds? A: The CSPI is proven to have a positive influence on the rate of return of shares mutual funds. That is, if the CSPI increases, it is expected that the rate of return from the mutual fund will also increase.

Q: What are the implications of this study for investors? A: The implications of this study for investors are that they should consider macroeconomic factors, such as inflation, exchange rates, and interest rates, when making investment decisions. Mutual fund investors should also monitor the JCI as an indicator of investment performance.

Q: What are the limitations of this study? A: The limitations of this study are that it only used data from January 2011 to December 2015, which may not be representative of the current economic situation. The study also only analyzed the influence of macroeconomic variables on the JCI, and did not consider other factors that may affect the stock market.

Q: What are the future research directions suggested by this study? A: The future research directions suggested by this study are to conduct a study on the impact of macroeconomic variables on the stock market in other countries, to explore the relationship between macroeconomic variables and the stock market in Indonesia using other statistical methods, and to conduct a study on the impact of the EIDO and Nikkei 225 index on the stock market in Indonesia.

Q: What are the practical implications of this study for policymakers? A: The practical implications of this study for policymakers are that they should consider the impact of macroeconomic variables on the stock market when making economic policies. This can help to create a more stable and predictable economic environment.

Q: What are the potential applications of this study in the field of finance? A: The potential applications of this study in the field of finance are that it can be used to develop more effective investment strategies, to improve the performance of mutual funds, and to create more stable and predictable economic environments.

Q: What are the potential limitations of this study in the field of finance? A: The potential limitations of this study in the field of finance are that it may not be generalizable to other countries or economic situations, and that it may not consider other factors that may affect the stock market.

Q: What are the potential future research directions in the field of finance? A: The potential future research directions in the field of finance are to conduct studies on the impact of macroeconomic variables on the stock market in other countries, to explore the relationship between macroeconomic variables and the stock market in Indonesia using other statistical methods, and to conduct studies on the impact of the EIDO and Nikkei 225 index on the stock market in Indonesia.